Mapping the incidence of the COVID-19 hotspot in Iran – Implications for Travellers

Authors: ZahraArab-Mazar,RanjitSah,Ali A.Rabaan,KuldeepDhama,Alfonso J.Rodriguez-Morales

Surveillance cases data from February 19 to March 9, 2020, officially reported by the Iranian health authorities were used to estimate the cumulated incidence rates using reference population data on SARS-CoV-2 confirmed infections (cases/100,000 pop) and to develop the maps by provinces, using the GIS software Kosmo® ۳.۱.

During the first 20 days of epidemics, 7161 cases of COVID-19 were reported in the country, for a cumulated rate of 8.9 cases/100,000 population, reaching up to 1234 cases during March 6, 2020 (Fig. 1). All the provinces have been affected, and rates ranged from 0.8 (Boushehr) to 61.8 cases/100,000 population (Qom) (Fig. 1). At Qom, the first two cases were reported. COVID-19 arrived at Iran from China. The highest number of cases have been reported in Tehran, 1945 (Fig. 1), followed by Qom, 712, and by Mazandaran, with 633. Qom is the border with Markazi and Semnan, provinces with rates from 27.2 to 34.9 cases/100,000 population. From the GIS-based maps, it is clear that spreading in the country is occurring from north-central provinces such as Tehran and Qom. Till March 9, 2020, there have been 237 deaths (3.31%, case fatality rate). While the number of cases seems to decrease during the last three days, this is not occurring with fatalities (Fig. 1).

تاریخ انتشار اولیه: ۱۱ اردیبهشت ۱۳۹۹
تاریخ رصد: ۳۰ مرداد ۱۳۹۹



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