Estimation of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Burden and Potential for International Dissemination of Infection From Iran

Authors: Ashleigh R. Tuite, PhD, MPH, Isaac I. Bogoch, MD, Ryan Sherbo, MSc, Alexander Watts, PhD, David Fisman, MD, MPH, Kamran Khan, MD, MPH

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic began in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 and continues to spread globally (1), with exported cases confirmed in 109 countries at the time of writing (2). During the interval between 19 February and 23 February 2020, Iran reported its first 43 cases, with 8 deaths. Three exported cases originating in Iran were identified, suggesting an underlying burden of disease in that country greater than that indicated by reported cases. A large epidemic in Iran could further fuel global dissemination of COVID-19. To quantify the COVID-19 outbreak size in Iran on the basis of known exported case counts and air travel links between Iran and other countries, and to anticipate where infections originating in Iran may spread next.

تاریخ انتشار اولیه: ۳۰ اردیبشهت ۱۳۹۹
تاریخ رصد: ۱۲ شهریور ۱۳۹۹


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